Catastrophe averted....

Thank goodness yesterday, which the authorities here deemed to be, at least for some of the state, a day of "catastrophic" fire danger, passed without fatalities caused by fires. (There were alas several road deaths)

There has been some confusion about the additional fire damage rating of catastrophic which has been superimposed on the existing ones (supplanting extreme) . Though there's a Cape Catastrophe on Eyre Peninsula near the proclaimed area I'm not convinced that everyone understands this multisyllabic term and what it means when it is invoked. Is it really necessary, I wonder? Whatever words are used and no matter how effectively warnings are communicated in a high fire risk situation each person usually has to make their own decision about whether to stay or leave.

The last couple of days have once again shown the value of a free to air public broadcaster for keeping people informed in emergency situations. The ABC staff were generally well informed about SA place names and their pronunciation, while Sky News persisted in mispronouncing "Wirrabara". one of the YHA's 20 Frequently Mispronounced Australian Destinations even though a local fire official appearing on its news programs pronounced it correctly.

I also wasn't too impressed with the inability of the SA Police media liaison person to provide ABC radio yesterday afternoon with the CFS hotline phone number. You'd think they'd have it if not in their mind then in front of them. A small matter perhaps, but possibly indicative of some gaps in interagency cooperation which need to be plugged before the next emergency.

Heat...and more heat

Friday 13th. Black Friday. Yet another 35C+ day. It's now (2.40pm CDST) 38.1deg. The sequence is easily a record for this time of year, when there may be the occasional hot day or two but not this preview of January - February. And I I thought that a few days with temperatures nudging 20C when I was in the UK was uncharacteristically warm!

When will it end? Forecast is for 39 tomorrow and 40 Sunday before 28 Monday. We shall see.

Beauty's double meaning

The front page of today's Advertiser (prominently) and the Adelaide Now website ( less prominently) print this photo taken by a reader at Gawler earlier this week on a sunny day.

It shows a red-bellied black snake approaching a duck (identified as a "Moscovy " by the paper at p14 and a " Muscovy" by the website) .

Snake-Away snake catcher Ian Renton said it was likely the snake was feasting on ducklings and was chasing the mother duck away.

"The duck is way too big for the snake to eat so it probably would not be entertaining that side of things," he said.

Or was the mother duck attempting to interpose herself between the reptile and her brood? The Advertiser published a couple of other photos which are clearly part of a sequence taken in quick succession. It would be good to see more of them or to hear what happened.

While red-bellied black snakes are venomous their venom is (I believe) not normally strong enough to kill a human. They are also very attractive, as Judith Wright put it so succinctly in her poem "The Cedars":

The snake, the fang of summer, beauty's double meaning,

shifts his slow coils and feels his springtime hunger.

As I recently posted my most recent snake sighting was on 20 July this year in the Adelaide Hills (near Tungkillo) when it was much warmer than it's been for the last couple of days. If, as I hope to, I get out and about when the springlike weather returns, I'll expect to come across other snakes. When I do so I'll keep my distance but also try to take a photo or two.

After warm winter, early taste of summer

Today's estimated max temp is 29deg C, 10 deg above the September average.

The BOM records that it's already reached 27 at 10.27 though it's fallen to about 25 at noon.

Climatologist Blair Trewin in The Punch reflects on the warm August many Australians have just experienced:

August 2009 was Australia’s warmest on record. Temperatures averaged over the country were 2.47C above the long-term average, nearly a degree above the previous August record set in 1998, and 25% of the country had its hottest August day on record at some stage during the month.

Trewin points out

Average temperatures in Australia have warmed by about 0.8C over the last 100 years, most of it in the last 50.

and concludes

...while we can’t blame global warming for any individual extreme warm event it is certainly making these events more common.

The entire piece, which includes several graphs, is worth reading.

Spring

Today is the first day of spring. With very little assistance from me (I didn't prune the bush during winter) this rose bloomed right on time for the official opening of the season.

Not everything is rosy in our national garden, though, as today's Australian reports

Australia has just experienced its warmest winter on record.

While the claim won't be official until data for August 31 is collected from the nation's 850 temperature observing stations, yesterday's relatively warm temperatures across the country should see the winter of 2009 rewrite the record books.

The Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre has produced a Special Climate Statement whose title " Exceptional winter heat over large parts of Australia" is self-explanatory.

South Australia appears to have had its warmest winter on record. This doesn't surprise me as I saw a snake in the Adelaide Hills on 20 July when the max temp in the city was a springlike 21.7 deg C (today it was 18.0).

Detailed records for Adelaide and other weather stations can be found here

Heat and fire

Bushfires have caused huge loss of life and property damage in Victoria.

As I post it appears that at least 65 people have died and 600 homes been destroyed . This figure may well be exceeded.

After almost a fortnight of extreme heat in Adelaide spanning late January and early February without any major fires I'd assumed that the worst was over. This may have been true for South Australia, but it was not for Victoria where a cocktail of high temperatures and high winds wrought destruction yesterday and overnight.

I, like many others in southern Australia, have been uncomfortable in the heat of the last two weeks but seeing what has happened to so many people in Victoria has put my discomfort into perspective. It is trivial in comparison to their sufferings. My sympathies to them and condolences to those who have lost family and friends.

Rain

Just before five o'clock this morning I was awakened by an unfamiliar sound: rain on the roof.

It's the first precipitation we've had here for weeks, and is most welcome even if it means that we have to seek out our umbrellas, raincoats and the like.

Last evening I cycled to Glenelg to watch the sun set in a cloudless sky. This will probably be the last such one we'll see for a while, as more rain is forecast for the next few days. I'm sure most of us will welcome it.

If you can't stand the heat, get out of Adelaide

The average maximum temperature in Adelaide in March is 26 degrees C. Not exactly autumnal, but not high summer either.

For the last 15 days we've been experiencing an official heatwave, where each day the maximum temperature has exceeded 35 deg. The Bureau of Meteorology official figures are available on its website , but I'll reproduce them here:

Observations are from Kent Town, about 2 km east of the city centre.

Date	Day	Temps		Rain	Evap	Sun	Max wind gust			9 am						3 pm
		Min	Max				Dir	Spd	Time	Temp	RH	Cld	Dir	Spd	MSLP	Temp	RH	Cld	Dir	Spd	MSLP
		°C	°C	mm	mm	hours	km/h		local	°C	%	8th	km/h		hPa	°C	%	8th	km/h		hPa
1	Sa	13.5	25.7	0			ESE	46	02:12	17.2	37		E	9	1022.6	24.4	25		SW	17	1020.4
2	Su	13.3	31.1	0		11.4	NE	30	08:08	23.5	16		NE	15	1021.6	30.1	9		W	19	1019.9
3	Mo	15.6	35.4	0	19.6	11.0				25.6	16		NNE	7	1020.0	34.3	6		W	19	1017.5
4	Tu	23.5	35.7		11.8	10.4				27.0	16		WSW	4	1019.4	34.5	12		WSW	13	1017.7
5	We	24.4	37.9	0	10.6	11.2	ESE	35	23:04	28.4	27		NNE	13	1021.1	37.3	9		WSW	15	1019.3
6	Th	19.6	38.5	0	7.2	11.2	SW	30	14:11	26.5	28		ENE	4	1022.2	38.0	8		WSW	17	1020.6
7	Fr	19.9	39.0	0	8.2		WNW	24	11:52	26.5	39		Calm		1022.3	37.3	11		W	15	1020.4
8	Sa	21.1	39.8	0			E	26	20:59	26.8	33		Calm		1021.1	38.9	9		SW	20	1018.9
9	Su	25.4	40.2	0			E	37	00:56	31.5	15		NNE	11	1020.9	39.5	9		WSW	19	1018.7
10	Mo	22.4	40.0	0		11.4	WNW	31	13:01	28.6	26		NNE	4	1019.8	38.0	12		WSW	19	1018.7
11	Tu	22.0	38.4	0	34.4	11.1	WSW	30	13:41	26.2	45		N	6	1020.6	35.9	23		SW	19	1018.1
12	We	22.4	39.2	0	7.8	9.4	WSW	37	14:33	25.7	44		SSW	6	1018.6	38.3	13		WNW	17	1015.9
13	Th	25.0	39.7	0	8.0	10.8	NW	52	12:52	31.4	21		NNE	9	1014.3	38.8	9		NW	30	1011.6
14	Fr	30.2	38.6	0	15.8		WNW	56	12:07	31.2	15		N	20	1012.9	38.1	8		NW	30	1012.4
15	Sa	23.6	38.3	0			NW	31	12:51	26.1	42		NNE	4	1015.9	36.0	17		WNW	15	1014.5
16	Su	22.5	39.9	0		10.9	WNW	31	11:18	28.5	34		NE	7	1015.9	39.7	11		WSW	17	1013.9
17	Mo	25.9		0	22.8					32.0	19		NE	9	1014.7	39.6	10		WNW	19	1011.9
Statistics for the first 17 days of March 2008
Mean		21.8	37.3		14.6	10.9				27.2	27			7	1019.1	36.4	11			18	1017.1
Lowest		13.3	25.7	0	7.2	9.4				17.2	15		Calm		1012.9	24.4	6		WSW	13	1011.6
Highest		30.2	40.2	0	34.4	11.4	WNW	56		32.0	45		N	20	1022.6	39.7	25		NW	30	1020.6
Total				0.0	146.2	108.8

Those who measure heatwaves by the Fahrenheit scale will note that the 100 deg F (37.9 deg C) mark has been passed for the last 13 consecutive days. This is a record for an Australian capital city, breaking Perth's 11 day spell of 35+ deg C days set some years ago.

Despite the consistently high temperatures the days have not been identical: most have been sunny and with relatively moderate winds, but there have been some overcast ones where the sun hasn't shone through for long (or at all).

Today's max was 40.5 deg, but a cool change is predicted for tomorrow with a max in the 20s. At 10.45pm the temperature was, according to the BOM website, 28.5 deg, so I hope the prediction comes true. But if it doesn't I, like so many other people, will maintain (or try to maintain) a stoic fortitude in the face of the climatic adversity.

How well have people coped? i think that two things have helped: (1) widespread air conditioning , particularly in public places, and (2) no (or very few) power cuts despite the system being placed under considerable strain.

My house is made of brick and stone, which means that once it heats up it stays heated up. Opening windows at night has sometimes helped a little but, as the BOM stats show, the minimum temp hasn't always dropped very much. I have one airconditioned room, to which I've retreated at times and a cellar, where I've slept very comfortably for a few nights, and to where I'm about to adjourn. i hope to wake up tomorrow to a cool(er), crisp morning much more typical of mid-March in Adelaide.

Cold (dis)comfort

I shouldn't say that the weather has been unseasonably cold, since it's June. But I will, as it feels that way, especially after last year's much more clement winter.

Even so, I'll spare a thought for the inhabitants of the Top End, who've been subjected to the cruel and unusual punishment of a day when the maximum temperature in Darwin struggled to reach 20 degrees.

And the cold/cool/mild weather hasn't been confined to Darwin. The Australian reports:

Official statistics available yesterday showed that 13 towns north of the Tropic of Capricorn recorded maximums below 10C on Wednesday. Climatologist Blair Trewin said there were just 12 individual instances of sub-10C maximums for the tropics on record.

"Tennant Creek Airport's 8C is the northernmost sub-10C max ever in Australia," Dr Trewin said. "Camooweal's 9.8C is the northernmost recorded in Queensland."

Tennant Creek topped at 8.3C yesterday, about 16C below average. Darwin's top of 22.7C on Wednesday was a June record low and in the Queensland tropics, 40 towns set records for low maximums on Wednesday.

Rain

Rain was forecast last night, arrived this morning and has continued through the day and into tonight. Not heavy rain, but a steady drizzle.

I took the photo through the steamed- up window of a bus travelling along North Terrace this afternoon.

The rain is expected to continue for the next few days. If it does it will be a great relief to those who have hoped or prayed for it.

"Bushwalkers forced to evacuate" in Tasmania...notes on the weather

When I first saw this headline on theNews.com.au website I thought that it probably referred to a typically authoritarian Greens directive about preserving the environment. I was wrong: the full text of the News story, corroborated bythe ABC , makes it clear that the subject is bushfires in Tasmania, not a proposal to implement Baden Powell's advice.

Since there's been a ring of fire around southern Australia for the last month or more this is hardly news, but it reminds me of when I visited Cradle Mountain in January several years ago. The peaks were covered in snow, but I don't recall hearing that the Overland Track was closed then .

Oh, and as I post it's raining in Adelaide. The long arm of the Top End monsoon, with its combination of preciptiation and humidity, has reached down here. Such is the Australian climate.

PS Today'sAustralian has a good story (and an even better photo which may not be online) illustrating the effects of the south-central Australian monsoon. On a slight tangent this piece by Nicholas Rothwell isn't monsoon-related but worth a look anyway to show that the paper does give a good run to the centre (even though the paper doesn't arrive there until - air schedules permitting - the middle of the day and costs twice as much as it does in the big smokes).